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England’s Covid R-rate may now be above 1.0 but pandemic is still shrinking

England’s ‘R’ rate range has risen very slightly to 0.8-1.1 but the pandemic is still shrinking nationally, according to official figures.

The transmission rate nationally is up very slightly from 0.8-1 compared to this time last week. The growth rate range for England is -4% to -1% per day.

London, the East of England, the Midlands, the South East and the North East and Yorkshire could now all have have an R-rate above 1 – meaning infections are on the rise, the latest data shows.

This estimate is provided by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and the Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC).

An R value between 0.8 and 1.1 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 8 and 11 other people.

A growth rate of between -4% and -1% means that the number of new infections is shrinking by between 1% and 4% every day.

The coronavirus reproduction number, or R value, in England is between 0.8 and 1.1, according to the latest Government figures.

Last week, the figure was between 0.8 and 1.

Sage has said that R estimates now span 1 for England and some NHS England regions.

But it added these estimates do not necessarily mean R is definitively above 1 and that the epidemic is increasing, just that the uncertainty means it cannot be ruled out.

Here’s what the R rate is in each region of England

In England, the R rate is 0.8 to 1.1

East of England – 0.8 to 1.1

London – 0.8 to 1.1

Midlands – 0.7 to 1.0

North-east and Yorkshire – 8 to 1.0

North-west – 0.7 to 0.9

South-east – 8 to 1.0

South west – 8 to 1.2



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